Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech

● quote 127 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $393.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $152.2KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection63Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$41.2K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 133 min agoofficial metadata 130 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$27.3K@ 89¢·0x772f…8145

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$26.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$26.0K
6h
+$38.5K
tracked
$41.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$416 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: -8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 127 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 133 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 130 minutes old.
  • •Resolution wording is unavailable; the settlement condition cannot be verified here.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-08-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 68.0¢2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$26.0K
6h+$38.5K
24h+$38.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h88.5¢▼ below by 29.0pp
VWAP 7d88.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$12.5K
85¢
$27.3K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$4
65¢
$492
60¢
$920
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$27.3K@ 88.6¢0x772f…8145🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$12.5K@ 91.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x772f…8145Jessica Pegula$27.3K
BUY VWAP 88.6¢·1 fill
tennischampJessica Pegula$12.5K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.