Mubadala Citi DC Open: Diana Shnaider vs Anastasia Potapova

● quote 113 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $107.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $12.8KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Diana Shnaider vs Anastasia Potapova
52.5¢
YES
47.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection23Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$21.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 120 min agoofficial metadata 126 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$16.3K@ 53¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.0K
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$21.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$16.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 58

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 113 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 120 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 126 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Diana Shnaider and Anastasia Potapova in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shnaider' if Diana Shnaider advances against Anastasia Potapova. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Potapova' if Anastasia Potapova advances against Diana Shnaider. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Diana Shnaider@ 54.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.0K
6h$5.1K
24h+$11.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$21.5K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDiana Shnaider (YES)$16.3K@ 53.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋about 10 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SineNooneEIDiana Shnaider$16.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.