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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $2.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $673.2KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Ben Shelton
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets18Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:227 trades$24.1K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.4K·6 wallets·$7.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton (NO)$4.3K@ 47¢·0xd575…e017

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.3K
6h
−$9.5K
tracked
$24.1K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$1.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ugo Humbert and Ben Shelton in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ugo Humbert' if Ugo Humbert advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Ugo Humbert. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $12.3K → $448 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$7.3K
6h−$9.5K
24h−$9.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.6¢▼ below by 29.5pp
VWAP 7d29.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.1K
55¢
$985
50¢
$4.4K
45¢
$623
40¢
$232
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$656
20¢
$7.4K
15¢
$36
10¢
$307
5¢
$4.6K
0¢
← now
$397

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity