The Memphis Classic: Yexin Ma vs Caty McNally

● quote 101 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $376.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $86.4KEvent: The Memphis Classic: Yexin Ma vs Caty McNally
2.5¢
YES
97.5¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$27.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 116 min agoofficial metadata 103 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $25.9K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$26.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCaty McNally (NO)$26.1K@ 87¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$753
6h
+$750
tracked
$27.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$25.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +14.7pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 101 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 116 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 103 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Yexin Ma and Caty McNally in the The Memphis Classic, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yexin Ma' if Yexin Ma advances against Caty McNally. This market will resolve to 'Caty McNally' if Caty McNally advances against Yexin Ma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Caty McNally@ 83.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $8.8K$17.0K · 35s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$753
6h+$750
24h$25.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.5¢
VWAP 24h13.4¢▼ below by 10.9pp
VWAP 7d13.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.3K
15¢
$13
10¢
$26.1K
5¢
$83
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCaty McNally (NO)$26.1K@ 86.9¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋about 9 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SineNooneEICaty McNally$26.1K
BUY VWAP 86.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.