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Vancouver: Harry Wendelken vs Keegan Rice

● quote 2392 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $173.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $151.8KEvent: Vancouver: Harry Wendelken vs Keegan Rice
20.5¢
YES
79.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$11.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2401 min agoofficial metadata 2396 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $11.2K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$11.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKeegan Rice (NO)$11.2K@ 78¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$375
6h
−$11.6K
tracked
$11.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$11.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 2392 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 2401 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 2396 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-05 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Harry Wendelken and Keegan Rice in the Vancouver, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harry Wendelken' if Harry Wendelken advances against Keegan Rice. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Rice' if Keegan Rice advances against Harry Wendelken. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $215 → $1.4K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$375
6h−$11.6K
24h−$11.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h23.2¢▼ below by 2.7pp
VWAP 7d23.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6
45¢
$481
40¢
$2
35¢
$9
30¢
$7
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$11.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKeegan Rice (NO)$11.2K@ 77.9¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—1 day ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Keegan Rice$11.2K
BUY VWAP 77.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.