Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng

● quote 11703 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $285.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $271.0KEvent: Los Cabos Open: Arthur Gea vs Michael Zheng
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichael Zheng (NO)$33.7K@ 86¢·hd777

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
−$33.7K
tracked
$42.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 67 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 11703 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 11723 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Michael Zheng in the Los Cabos Open, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 10:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Michael Zheng. This market will resolve to 'Michael Zheng' if Michael Zheng advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Michael Zheng@ 86.0¢8d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.6K
6h$33.7K
24h$33.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h18.9¢▲ above by 81.0pp
VWAP 7d18.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$58
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$56
50¢
$103
45¢
$478
40¢
$21
35¢
$295
30¢
$273
25¢
$7
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$412
10¢
$33.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMichael Zheng (NO)$33.7K@ 85.5¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋8 days ago