PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

● quote 34s ago
Finance→Closes: 25 daysLiquidity: $425.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $383.1KEvent: Fed Decision in December?

Indicative prices · 34s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.35¢
YES
96.65¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly29Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets28Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 74 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:217 trades$48.9K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $464.7K net·74 wallets(7🐋)·$634.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$50.6K@ 98¢·schizohedgehog

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $10.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.5K
6h
+$4.2K
tracked
$48.9K

74 verified profitable wallets: NO · $464.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 45

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-09 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ATCapital5 linked markets · $388.9K gross
0x71ed…d3383 linked markets · $376.0K gross
arjenw3 linked markets · $326.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 96.5¢4d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED +0.4pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 97.4¢4d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.5pp6h STALLED -1.7pp24h STALLED -1.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED +1.7pp24h STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 86.0¢5d ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp6h CONFIRMED +11.0pp24h CONFIRMED +10.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $10.5K
6hYES · $4.2K
24hNO · $2.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.35¢
VWAP 24h3.45¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d7.46¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$7.2K
30¢
$95.6K
25¢
$192.9K
20¢
$497.6K
15¢
$323.3K
10¢
$44.9K
5¢
$211.2K
0¢
← now
$701.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$10.0K@ 96.7¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—10 minutes ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 97.3¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$22.4K@ 98.4¢
rooivalk0x9bca…ca1f
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$14.6K@ 97.1¢
ATCapital0x7ad3…2e30
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$33.8K@ 96.5¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$17.9K@ 96.39¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$48.7K@ 97.4¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$50.6K@ 97.8¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$50.3K@ 97.7¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 97.1¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$48.5K@ 96.95¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$48.4K@ 96.83¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$12.5K@ 93.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$11.2K@ 92.0¢
ATCapital0x7ad3…2e30
🐋—4 days ago
SELLNO$37.2K@ 93.0¢
ATCapital0x7ad3…2e30
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$41.7K@ 92.98¢
gokol0x7a35…2744
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 91.0¢
gokol0x7a35…2744
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$16.9K@ 89.62¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$33.2K@ 83.0¢
ATCapital0x7ad3…2e30
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$12.7K@ 82.0¢
leoeagle0xd24b…2dfe
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 78.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$20.3K@ 78.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$12.5K@ 78.0¢
SheltonDoubter0x7cf9…2798
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$12.7K@ 34.91¢
jde-1260x0bbf…bac7
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$14.4K@ 24.0¢
CharityStripe0x201c…58bf
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 76.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$22.5K@ 76.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 75.0¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$15.7K@ 74.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$29.6K@ 76.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—15 days ago
SELLYES$11.6K@ 23.33¢
woshishabihaha0x8a67…8494
🐋—16 days ago
BUYYES$10.5K@ 20.92¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$21.3K@ 84.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 84.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—17 days ago
BUYNO$11.2K@ 83.0¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—17 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
85.5¢$317.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
8.85¢$203.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0.25¢$131.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
0.35¢$127.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
0.45¢$133.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
21.35¢$119.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?
13.5¢$53.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0.25¢$39.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TheReturnOfDarthMaulNo$146.3K
BUY VWAP 97.05¢·5 fills
schizohedgehogNo$112.8K
BUY VWAP 97.68¢·4 fills
ATCapitalNo$91.4K
BUY VWAP 86.24¢·11 fills
timetowanderNo$60.7K
BUY VWAP 96.15¢·4 fills
BiggggggggNo$59.2K
BUY VWAP 91.54¢·17 fills
gokolNo$54.1K
BUY VWAP 92.57¢·3 fills
cigarettesNo$47.2K
BUY VWAP 93.89¢·113 fills
SheltonDoubterNo$33.0K
BUY VWAP 78.09¢·4 fills
plumbisNo$29.2K
BUY VWAP 97.14¢·6 fills
rooivalkNo$25.8K
BUY VWAP 98.16¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.