Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 5 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $236.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $226.7KEvent: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
12.5¢
YES
87.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly30Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:24 trades$13.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$12.4K@ 53¢·0xfd67…ef90

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$95
6h
−$1.1K
tracked
$13.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$93 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 22:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 5 at 6:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Angels" if the Los Angeles Angels win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $7$48 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$95
6h$1.1K
24h$13.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.5¢
VWAP 24h46.6¢▼ below by 34.1pp
VWAP 7d46.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$13.3K
40¢
$195
35¢
$24
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$85
10¢
← now
$19
5¢
$1
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$12.4K@ 53.0¢0xfd67…ef90🐋about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
28.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
28.5¢$899.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$397.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
55.5¢$348.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
41.5¢$268.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
74.5¢$199.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-08-05?
41.5¢$168.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xfd67…ef90Baltimore Orioles$12.4K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.