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NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $56.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $103.5KEvent: NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP - More Markets
16.5¢
YES
83.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$25.1K trackedsource coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$11.3K·2 wallets·$12.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$9.7K@ 52¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$7.4K
tracked
$25.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$11.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between NEC and Olympiakós SFP, scheduled for August 11 at 1:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if NEC and Olympiakós SFP combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $2.8K → $1.8K · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.2K
6h−$7.4K
24h+$2.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current16.5¢
VWAP 24h51.2¢▼ below by 34.7pp
VWAP 7d51.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$21.9K
45¢
$1.9K
40¢
$830
35¢
$255
30¢
$137
25¢
$96
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cOver$11.7K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.