Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
NO pressure: −$58.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
1 verified profitable wallet: +$18.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 76% · priority 0
Since latest position change: +0.0pp at executable prices.
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Executable quote is 54 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
- •Official market metadata is 57 minutes old.
- •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If Paris Saint-Germain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.