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Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $51.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $777.0KEvent: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa - More Markets
47.0¢
YES
53.0¢
NO
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection53Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets91Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:223 trades$347.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 20s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $190.8K·4 wallets(3🐋)·$209.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$74.1K@ 51¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$182.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$182.9K
6h
−$185.8K
tracked
$347.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$190.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 78

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefasupercup/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming UEFA Super Cup game between Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa, scheduled for August 12 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony6 linked markets · $77.5K gross
0x5f65…20362 linked markets · $39.2K gross
0x122b…ac592 linked markets · $25.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $116 → $7 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$182.9K
6h−$185.8K
24h−$185.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.0¢
VWAP 24h47.5¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d47.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$27.7K
60¢
$8.6K
55¢
$8.0K
50¢
$12.1K
45¢
← now
$210.5K
40¢
$4.9K
35¢
$51.8K
30¢
$5.2K
25¢
$17.3K
20¢
$35
15¢
$1.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$45.8K@ 51.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYUnder (NO)$29.2K@ 51.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder (NO)$74.1K@ 51.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUnder (NO)$11.7K@ 75.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cUnder$103.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Under$45.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
swisstonyUnder$40.7K
BUY VWAP 58.5¢·27 fills
0x0353…c2ffUnder$13.0K
BUY VWAP 64.5¢·2 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Under$12.3K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·13 fills
0x122b…ac59Over$11.9K
BUY VWAP 44.2¢·5 fills
iDARKenjoyerUnder$10.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.