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UFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 3557 min ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $321.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $735.4KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Billy Ray Goff vs. Ty Miller (Welterweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $56.8K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$111.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTy Miller (NO)$55.5K@ 100¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.8K
6h
−$42.4K
tracked
$46.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$56.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 39 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 3557 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 3577 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Billy Ray Goff" if Billy Ray Goff is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ty Miller at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Ty Miller" if Ty Miller is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Ty Miller2d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Ty Miller2d ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Ty Miller@ 79.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Ty Miller@ 79.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$6.8K
6h−$42.4K
24h−$42.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h19.9¢▼ below by 19.8pp
VWAP 7d19.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.8K
20¢
$256.6K
15¢
$28.1K
10¢
$13.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$125.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLTy Miller (NO)$55.5K@ 99.9¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—2 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$10.9K@ 99.0¢0x8712…d62e🐋—2 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$14.8K@ 99.0¢0x1dd4…a4ad🐋—2 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$14.8K@ 99.0¢0x1dd4…a4ad🐋—2 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$12.1K@ 90.0¢0xa38a…821d🐋—2 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$39.5K@ 79.0¢
sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$39.5K@ 79.0¢
sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$11.8K@ 79.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$12.6K@ 79.0¢
Sportbetting760xe524…d34f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$15.8K@ 79.0¢0x6f3e…bcf8🐋—3 days ago
BUYTy Miller (NO)$35.5K@ 79.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfTy Miller$80.7K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·7 fills
sleepy-pandaTy Miller$79.0K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·2 fills
0x1dd4…a4adTy Miller$38.4K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·3 fills
0x6f3e…bcf8Ty Miller$15.8K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
0xa38a…821dTy Miller$13.4K
BUY VWAP 90.7¢·2 fills
Sportbetting76Ty Miller$12.6K
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
0x8712…d62eTy Miller$10.9K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.