The Memphis Classic: Elvina Kalieva vs Peyton Stearns

● quote 80 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $130.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.0KEvent: The Memphis Classic: Elvina Kalieva vs Peyton Stearns
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets10Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:85 trades$5.0K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 70%
tape 88 min agoofficial metadata 81 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$199·2 wallets·$1.3K gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$723
6h
+$731
tracked
$5.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$199 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • BUY/SELL is known for 70% of tracked volume.
  • Executable quote is 80 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 88 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 81 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elvina Kalieva and Peyton Stearns in the The Memphis Classic, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elvina Kalieva' if Elvina Kalieva advances against Peyton Stearns. This market will resolve to 'Peyton Stearns' if Peyton Stearns advances against Elvina Kalieva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $22.0K$206 · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$723
6h+$731
24h+$731

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h53.3¢▼ below by 16.8pp
VWAP 7d53.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$29
55¢
$58
50¢
$37
45¢
$419
40¢
$1.2K
35¢
← now
$241
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity