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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $421.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $461.7KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton
45.0¢
YES
55.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:280 trades$34.0K trackedsource coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $12·4 wallets·$2.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBen Shelton (NO)$11.5K@ 76¢·0x58d7…17e1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
−$13.8K
tracked
$34.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$12 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 44

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Ben Shelton in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $42.5K → $93.7K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h−$13.8K
24h−$13.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.0¢
VWAP 24h22.3¢▲ above by 22.7pp
VWAP 7d22.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$821
40¢
$258
35¢
$328
30¢
$4.0K
25¢
$3.1K
20¢
$15.9K
15¢
$227
10¢
$7.5K
5¢
$1.7K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBen Shelton (NO)$11.5K@ 76.0¢0x58d7…17e1🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x58d7…17e1Ben Shelton$11.5K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.