Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

● quote 172 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $151.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $518.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
42.0¢
YES
58.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority73Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$35.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 179 min agoofficial metadata 177 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $20.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$20.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (NO)$20.0K@ 73¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$9.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.6K
6h
−$28.7K
tracked
$35.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$20.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 73

Since latest large flow: -15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 172 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 179 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 177 minutes old.
  • Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Astralis and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 1 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbe2b…20e42 linked markets · $270 gross
0x90d8…4a482 linked markets · $24 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 74.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $7.0K$1.5K · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$9.6K
6h$28.7K
24h$28.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.0¢
VWAP 24h37.2¢▲ above by 4.8pp
VWAP 7d37.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$8.5K
50¢
$998
45¢
$2.5K
40¢
← now
$1.4K
35¢
$300
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$20.0K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMOUZ (NO)$20.0K@ 73.0¢0xf559…f462🐋about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f462MOUZ$20.0K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.