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Targu Mures: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson

● quote 145 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $280.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $200.8KEvent: Targu Mures: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson
2.9¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection46Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$3.4K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 176 min agoofficial metadata 148 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $106·4 wallets·$838 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLaura Samson (NO)$1.9K@ 100¢·0x8bd8…12df

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
+$1.6K
tracked
$3.4K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$106 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Executable quote is 145 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 176 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucia Bronzetti and Laura Samson in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucia Bronzetti' if Lucia Bronzetti advances against Laura Samson. This market will resolve to 'Laura Samson' if Laura Samson advances against Lucia Bronzetti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.9pp · near-book depth $36 → $0 · 39s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.5K
6h+$1.6K
24h+$1.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.9¢
VWAP 24h3.3¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d3.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$621
5¢
$339
0¢
← now
$2.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity