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Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia

● quote 81 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $244.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $341.0KEvent: Canadian Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolas Mejia
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly51Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:62 trades$41.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 115 min agoofficial metadata 83 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNicolas Mejia (NO)$39.2K@ 49¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$517
6h
−$39.7K
tracked
$41.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$81 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +58.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 81 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 115 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 83 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Nicolas Mejia in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Nicolas Mejia. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Mejia' if Nicolas Mejia advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Nicolas Mejia3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Nicolas Mejia@ 42.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $4.4K → $4.2K · 14s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$517
6h−$39.7K
24h−$39.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h50.5¢▼ below by 50.4pp
VWAP 7d50.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$15
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$31
50¢
$39.2K
45¢
$22
40¢
$88
35¢
$265
30¢
$0
25¢
$22
20¢
$255
15¢
$215
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$72

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNicolas Mejia (NO)$39.2K@ 49.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Nicolas Mejia$39.2K
BUY VWAP 49.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.