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Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils

● quote 75 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $279.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $460.3KEvent: Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils
7.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:119 trades$87.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 90 min agoofficial metadata 64 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$485·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKamil Majchrzak (YES)$47.1K@ 75¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$65
6h
+$78.1K
tracked
$87.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$485 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 75 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 90 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 64 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Kamil Majchrzak and Gael Monfils in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majchrzak' if Kamil Majchrzak advances against Gael Monfils. This market will resolve to 'Gael Monfils' if Gael Monfils advances against Kamil Majchrzak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kamil Majchrzak@ 76.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.6pp · near-book depth $70.1K → $1.4K · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$65
6h+$78.1K
24h+$78.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.1¢
VWAP 24h70.4¢▼ below by 63.3pp
VWAP 7d70.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$74.6K
70¢
$2.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3
50¢
$2.5K
45¢
$669
40¢
$0
35¢
$5
30¢
$240
25¢
$1.8K
20¢
$3.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$28
5¢
← now
$888
0¢
$40

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKamil Majchrzak (YES)$22.0K@ 76.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYKamil Majchrzak (YES)$47.1K@ 75.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Kamil Majchrzak$71.8K
BUY VWAP 75.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.