Canadian Open: Alexis Galarneau vs Vit Kopriva

● quote 8 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $496.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $758.4KEvent: Canadian Open: Alexis Galarneau vs Vit Kopriva
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:99 trades$6.6K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.4K·2 wallets·$3.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVit Kopriva (NO)$1.8K@ 87¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$981
6h
−$1.7K
tracked
$6.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 8 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexis Galarneau and Vit Kopriva in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexis Galarneau' if Alexis Galarneau advances against Vit Kopriva. This market will resolve to 'Vit Kopriva' if Vit Kopriva advances against Alexis Galarneau. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $15.8K$8.2K · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$981
6h$1.7K
24h$1.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.2¢▼ below by 20.2pp
VWAP 7d20.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$790
50¢
$406
45¢
$8
40¢
$0
35¢
$293
30¢
$71
25¢
$75
20¢
$0
15¢
$340
10¢
$127
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity