Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges

● quote 84 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $101.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $586.0KEvent: Canadian Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Nuno Borges
25.5¢
YES
74.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:151 trades$49.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 144 min agoofficial metadata 85 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $12.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$13.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNuno Borges (NO)$14.5K@ 78¢·0x58d7…17e1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$12
6h
−$24.0K
tracked
$49.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$12.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 84 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 144 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 85 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Nuno Borges in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Kovacevic' if Aleksandar Kovacevic advances against Nuno Borges. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Aleksandar Kovacevic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $7.4K$6.4K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12
6h$24.0K
24h$41.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.5¢
VWAP 24h29.4¢▼ below by 3.9pp
VWAP 7d29.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$4
55¢
$271
50¢
$855
45¢
$4.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$701
30¢
$18.8K
25¢
← now
$883
20¢
$23.2K
15¢
$8
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNuno Borges (NO)$14.5K@ 78.0¢0x58d7…17e1🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYNuno Borges (NO)$12.7K@ 68.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋about 15 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x58d7…17e1Nuno Borges$18.0K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·2 fills
SineNooneEINuno Borges$12.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.