Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals

● quote 44 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $206.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $178.5KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
26.5¢
YES
73.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly18Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$24.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 49 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$19.0K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$19.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$19.0K@ 48¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$14.0K
tracked
$24.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$19.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 52 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 49 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 7 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Cincinnati Reds2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 20.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $9.4K$1.6K · 8s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3
6h+$14.0K
24h+$14.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h44.8¢▼ below by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d44.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$20.1K
40¢
$43
35¢
$488
30¢
$3.7K
25¢
← now
$37
20¢
$146
15¢
$99
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$19.0K@ 48.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Cincinnati Reds$19.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.