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Fluminense FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $112.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $78.8KEvent: Fluminense FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia - More Markets
1.1¢
YES
99.0¢
NO
1.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$32.9K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.3K·3 wallets·$17.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$9.6K@ 37¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.9K
6h
−$13.7K
tracked
$32.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$1.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.9¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://conmebollibertadores.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game between Fluminense FC and CS Independiente Rivadavia, scheduled for August 11 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Fluminense FC and CS Independiente Rivadavia combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebollibertadores.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $19.1K gross
WTSA2 linked markets · $16.3K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $869 → $924 · 60s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$5.9K
6h−$13.7K
24h−$13.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.1¢
VWAP 24h30.6¢▼ below by 29.6pp
VWAP 7d30.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$25.6K
30¢
$15
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$3
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$2.1K
0¢
← now
$3.8K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2a69…d2f7Under$11.1K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.