Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration - Game 1 Winner

● quote 52 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $604.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $194.2KEvent: Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly34Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$6.9K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 53 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPlayTime (YES)$1.0K@ 67¢·0xe16d…5e30

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$70
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$6.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 52 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 53 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 11:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between PlayTime and Execration in the Games of the Future Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 2 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win Game 1 against Execration. This market will resolve to "Execration" if Execration win Game 1 against PlayTime. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $5 → $8 · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$70
6h+$2.0K
24h+$2.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h66.2¢▼ below by 66.2pp
VWAP 7d66.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$550
85¢
$1.1K
80¢
$911
75¢
$489
70¢
$74
65¢
$2.3K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$6
35¢
$16
30¢
$251
25¢
$463
20¢
$422
15¢
$179
10¢
$11
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$73

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.