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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala

● quote 61 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $198.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala
80.5¢
YES
19.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets53Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:232 trades$141.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 66 min agoofficial metadata 63 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$7.3K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$13.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$61.7K@ 61¢·beachboy4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$406
tracked
$141.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$7.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 61 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 66 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 63 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Alexandra Eala in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Alexandra Eala. This market will resolve to 'Alexandra Eala' if Alexandra Eala advances against Jessica Pegula. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Jessica Pegula14h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 63.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp6h CONFIRMED +17.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 64.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp6h CONFIRMED +16.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Jessica Pegula@ 62.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $120.5K → $41.0K · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$3
6h+$406
24h+$96.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h62.1¢▲ above by 18.4pp
VWAP 7d62.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$10.0K
75¢
$43
70¢
$1.6K
65¢
$169
60¢
$106.8K
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$6.7K
40¢
$340
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$28.9K@ 63.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$61.7K@ 60.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula (YES)$10.6K@ 59.8¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 23 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)
49.5¢$45.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Jessica Pegula$61.7K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Jessica Pegula$28.9K
BUY VWAP 63.9¢·1 fill
SineNooneEIJessica Pegula$10.6K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.