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Istanbul 2: Arthur Weber vs Florent Bax

● quote 295 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $168.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.0KEvent: Istanbul 2: Arthur Weber vs Florent Bax
0.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$23.0K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 326 min agoofficial metadata 285 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFlorent Bax (NO)$11.8K@ 100¢·0xf9d6…730a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$11.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$11.8K
6h
+$679
tracked
$23.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$11.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 295 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 326 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-08-10 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$11.8K
6h+$679
24h+$679

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h4.9¢▼ below by 4.9pp
VWAP 7d4.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$11.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$11.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLFlorent Bax (NO)$11.8K@ 99.9¢0xf9d6…730a🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFlorent Bax (NO)$11.2K@ 90.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyFlorent Bax$11.2K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.