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National Bank Open: Michael Zheng vs Miomir Kecmanovic

UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $388.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $17.2KEvent: National Bank Open: Michael Zheng vs Miomir Kecmanovic
53.5¢
YES
46.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:7 trades$23 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 164 min agoofficial metadata 158 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$23

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 164 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 158 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Unknown
Deadline
2026-08-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Resolution wording is unavailable. Treat this as missing decision evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$0
6h−$0
24h−$0

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h70.1¢▼ below by 16.6pp
VWAP 7d70.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$14
65¢
$9
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity