Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar

● quote 389 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $386.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $373.4KEvent: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar
62.5¢
YES
37.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:29 trades$18.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 409 min agoofficial metadata 391 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $9.4K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$13.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar (NO)$11.5K@ 43¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.0K
6h
−$472
tracked
$18.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$9.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 389 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 409 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 391 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Taylor Fritz and Rafael Jodar in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taylor Fritz' if Taylor Fritz advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Taylor Fritz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.0K
6h$472
24h$11.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h58.3¢▲ above by 4.2pp
VWAP 7d58.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$3.1K
55¢
$14.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYRafael Jodar (NO)$11.5K@ 43.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 17 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaRafael Jodar$11.5K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.