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National Bank Open: Diane Parry vs Kayla Day

● quote 98 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $592.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $577.3KEvent: National Bank Open: Diane Parry vs Kayla Day
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:142 trades$64.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 124 min agoofficial metadata 97 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$516·2 wallets·$772 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDiane Parry (YES)$38.6K@ 48¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$7.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.8K
6h
+$60.2K
tracked
$64.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$516 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +69.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 98 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 124 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 97 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Diane Parry and Kayla Day in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Diane Parry' if Diane Parry advances against Kayla Day. This market will resolve to 'Kayla Day' if Kayla Day advances against Diane Parry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL YES3h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 69.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +23.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Diane Parry4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Diane Parry@ 71.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $5.0K → $3.6K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$7.8K
6h+$60.2K
24h+$60.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▼ below by 43.8pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$273
65¢
$7
60¢
$0
55¢
$2
50¢
$111
45¢
$38.8K
40¢
$10.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDiane Parry (YES)$38.6K@ 48.4¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYDiane Parry (YES)$10.0K@ 44.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Diane Parry$48.6K
BUY VWAP 47.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.