National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron

● quote 107 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $337.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $170.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$22.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 112 min agoofficial metadata 112 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $138·2 wallets·$138 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarcos Giron (NO)$19.3K@ 35¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.3K
6h
−$19.3K
tracked
$22.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$138 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -35.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 107 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 112 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 112 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Marcos Giron in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Marcos Giron. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Marcos Giron@ 36.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $76.8K$1.4K · 36s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.3K
6h$19.3K
24h$19.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h65.5¢▲ above by 34.4pp
VWAP 7d65.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$296
90¢
$148
85¢
$2
80¢
$0
75¢
$1
70¢
$52
65¢
$19.4K
60¢
$2.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMarcos Giron (NO)$19.3K@ 34.7¢0x5f65…2036🐋about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Marcos Giron$19.3K
BUY VWAP 34.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.