Lexington: James McCabe vs Dusan Lajovic

● quote 163 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $203.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $214.7KEvent: Lexington: James McCabe vs Dusan Lajovic
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$67.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 177 min agoofficial metadata 162 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.4K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$67.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDusan Lajovic (NO)$43.8K@ 100¢·LarryDaddy

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$21.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$21.0K
6h
+$21.0K
tracked
$67.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$21.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 163 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 177 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 162 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between James McCabe and Dusan Lajovic in the Lexington, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'James McCabe' if James McCabe advances against Dusan Lajovic. This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against James McCabe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Dusan Lajovic@ 100.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$21.0K
6h+$21.0K
24h+$21.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h3.2¢▼ below by 3.1pp
VWAP 7d3.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$239
15¢
$2
10¢
$201
5¢
$22.9K
0¢
← now
$44.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLDusan Lajovic (NO)$43.8K@ 99.9¢
LarryDaddy0xca97…49f6
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYDusan Lajovic (NO)$22.6K@ 91.2¢
LarryDaddy0xca97…49f6
🐋about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LarryDaddyDusan Lajovic$22.6K
BUY VWAP 91.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.