Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-08-15?

● quote 7302 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $1.1MOfficial 24h Vol: $2.2MEvent: Deportivo Alavés vs. Getafe CF
99.9¢
YES
9.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $14.7K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$88.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$119.6K@ 40¢·3edmond.dantes

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$18.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.2K
6h
+$373.2K
tracked
$909.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$14.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 125 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 7302 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 7318 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-15 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 15, 2026 If Deportivo Alavés wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 5d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 5d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony3 linked markets · $125.3K gross
jtwyslljy2 linked markets · $60.6K gross
0x1b47…d8143 linked markets · $46.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 47.0¢5d ago
15m INVALIDATED -39.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY YES5d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY YES5d ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY NO5d ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$18.2K
6h+$373.2K
24h+$371.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▲ above by 52.5pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$25.7K
90¢
$43.2K
85¢
$14.4K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$36.5K
50¢
$84.1K
45¢
$14.7K
40¢
$665.7K
35¢
$25.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$17.5K@ 99.9¢0x264a…55d4🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$20.6K@ 54.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋5 days ago
BUYNO$17.4K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$18.2K@ 41.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$32.5K@ 41.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$16.4K@ 41.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$18.9K@ 41.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$23.8K@ 41.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$118.0K@ 40.7¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$119.6K@ 40.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋5 days ago
BUYNO$15.8K@ 60.0¢0x1b47…d814🐋5 days ago
BUYNO$37.4K@ 60.0¢
jtwyslljy0x9cb9…32f2
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$20.5K@ 41.0¢
predictionlegend0x3eb0…6a68
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$41.0K@ 41.0¢
predictionlegend0x3eb0…6a68
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$41.0K@ 41.0¢
predictionlegend0x3eb0…6a68
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$41.0K@ 41.0¢
predictionlegend0x3eb0…6a68
🐋5 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

3edmond.dantesYes$360.2K
BUY VWAP 40.6¢·9 fills
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·4 fills
rabbitfoot1Yes$43.0K
BUY VWAP 54.1¢·7 fills
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·10 fills
jtwyslljyNo$37.4K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·8 fills
swisstonyYes$28.5K
BUY VWAP 89.8¢·10 fills
swisstonyNo$21.2K
BUY VWAP 35.5¢·10 fills
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.