Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

● quote 60 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $126.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $472.7KEvent: Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
49.0¢
YES
51.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$77.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 68 min agoofficial metadata 62 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $9.0K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$41.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$20.0K@ 50¢·0x3413…8ff2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$18.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.7K
6h
+$18.7K
tracked
$77.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$9.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 69% · priority 42

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 60 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 68 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 62 minutes old.
  • Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Team Falcons and BetBoom Team in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 3 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 2 against BetBoom Team. This market will resolve to "BetBoom Team" if BetBoom Team win Game 2 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $26.2K gross
0x2146…d41b2 linked markets · $6.8K gross
0x2929…1dd02 linked markets · $3.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $67$68 · 2s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$18.7K
6h+$18.7K
24h+$18.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.0¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$54
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$36.0K
45¢
← now
$36.3K
40¢
$1.5K
35¢
$139
30¢
$205
25¢
$221
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$16.0K@ 50.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$20.0K@ 50.0¢0x3413…8ff2🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBetBoom Team (NO)$10.0K@ 51.1¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBetBoom Team (NO)$15.0K@ 54.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe16d…5e30BetBoom Team$25.0K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·2 fills
0x3413…8ff2Team Falcons$20.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Team Falcons$16.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.