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Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-16?

● quote 5892 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $298.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $772.6KEvent: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD
99.9¢
YES
0.5¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $2.9K·3 wallets·$30.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$98.9K@ 54¢·0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$19.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$19.6K
6h
−$107.2K
tracked
$322.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$2.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 64 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 5892 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 5896 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-16 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 16, 2026 If RCD Espanyol de Barcelona wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony3 linked markets · $37.0K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $9.5K gross
0x86f4…bd702 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 54.0¢4d ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h INVALIDATED -48.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY YES4d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +43.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$19.6K
6h−$107.2K
24h−$107.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.4¢▲ above by 43.5pp
VWAP 7d56.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$32.3K
90¢
$8.6K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$37.2K
65¢
$4.9K
60¢
$4.4K
55¢
$9.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$218.8K
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$16.5K@ 99.9¢0x5901…63a2🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$98.9K@ 54.0¢
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff528140x709e…66f5
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$54.0K@ 54.0¢0xa084…bb99🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$20.4K@ 46.0¢0x983e…6748🐋—4 days ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814No$98.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
0xa084…bb99No$54.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
0x983e…6748Yes$33.5K
BUY VWAP 45.7¢·3 fills
swisstonyNo$14.5K
BUY VWAP 44.9¢·6 fills
0x62ca…1760Yes$11.4K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.