Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
NO pressure: −$5.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 51% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
This market refers to the Dota 2 Semifinal 1 match between PlayTime and Team Resilience in the Games of the Future Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win Game 2 against Team Resilience. This market will resolve to "Team Resilience" if Team Resilience win Game 2 against PlayTime. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.