Warsaw: Weronika Falkowska vs Noma Noha Akugue

● quote 103 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $263.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.1KEvent: Warsaw: Weronika Falkowska vs Noma Noha Akugue
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:106 trades$2.7K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 93 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $210·4 wallets·$251 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$327
6h
−$10
tracked
$2.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$210 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • Executable quote is 103 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 108 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Weronika Falkowska and Noma Noha Akugue in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Weronika Falkowska' if Weronika Falkowska advances against Noma Noha Akugue. This market will resolve to 'Noma Noha Akugue' if Noma Noha Akugue advances against Weronika Falkowska. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $5.6K$22 · 26s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$327
6h$10
24h$10

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h28.6¢▲ above by 71.3pp
VWAP 7d28.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7
90¢
$13
85¢
$62
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$286
40¢
$259
35¢
$307
30¢
$317
25¢
$90
20¢
$482
15¢
$408
10¢
$52
5¢
$0
0¢
$401

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity