Hagen: Thiago Monteiro vs Tom Gentzsch

● quote 80 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $375.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.8KEvent: Hagen: Thiago Monteiro vs Tom Gentzsch
17.5¢
YES
82.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$12.1K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 87 min agoofficial metadata 82 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTom Gentzsch (NO)$11.7K@ 68¢·0x26b4…b8a9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.1K
6h
−$12.1K
tracked
$12.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 70

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 80 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 87 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 82 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 09:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Tom Gentzsch in the Hagen, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Tom Gentzsch. This market will resolve to 'Tom Gentzsch' if Tom Gentzsch advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $48.8K$1.0K · 12s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12.1K
6h$12.1K
24h$12.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.5¢
VWAP 24h31.5¢▼ below by 14.0pp
VWAP 7d31.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$11.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$406
10¢
$9
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTom Gentzsch (NO)$11.7K@ 68.0¢0x26b4…b8a9🐋about 2 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x26b4…b8a9Tom Gentzsch$11.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.