Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-16?

● quote 19 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $131.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $490.3KEvent: Seattle Sounders FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC
40.5¢
YES
59.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$158.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$70.7K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$80.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$16.7K@ 50¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$163
6h
+$19.0K
tracked
$158.5K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$70.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +12.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 12.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 16, 2026 If Vancouver Whitecaps FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $31.2K gross
purplegatto2 linked markets · $8.2K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $1.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY NO@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY YES@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 10.0pp · near-book depth $201$791 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$163
6h+$19.0K
24h+$16.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h51.3¢▼ below by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d51.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$116.3K
45¢
$42.1K
40¢
← now
$26
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$13.2K@ 52.9¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$14.4K@ 52.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$14.9K@ 49.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$16.3K@ 51.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYYES$16.7K@ 50.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAYes$75.4K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·5 fills
BUY VWAP 47.8¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.