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National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

● quote 191 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $306.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $126.2KEvent: National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
80.0¢
YES
20.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly83Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$57.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 199 min agoofficial metadata 194 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElina Svitolina (YES)$22.5K@ 85¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$581
6h
+$54.9K
tracked
$57.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$97 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 191 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 199 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 194 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elina Svitolina and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elina Svitolina' if Elina Svitolina advances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Bouzas Maneiro' if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advances against Elina Svitolina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Elina Svitolina@ 86.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $18.0K → $17.0K · 64s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$581
6h+$54.9K
24h+$54.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.0¢
VWAP 24h84.8¢▼ below by 4.8pp
VWAP 7d84.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$55.8K
80¢
← now
$721
75¢
$666
70¢
$14
65¢
$154
60¢
$5
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYElina Svitolina (YES)$22.5K@ 85.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElina Svitolina (YES)$21.7K@ 85.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 6 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampElina Svitolina$44.2K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·2 fills
angelat0Elina Svitolina$10.6K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.