National Bank Open: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

● quote 41 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $386.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $241.4KEvent: National Bank Open: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
22.5¢
YES
77.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$20.6K trackedsource coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEkaterina Alexandrova (NO)$5.0K@ 55¢·0xa4fd…748b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.9K
6h
−$8.3K
tracked
$20.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$4 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 54

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 41 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Camila Osorio and Ekaterina Alexandrova in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camila Osorio' if Camila Osorio advances against Ekaterina Alexandrova. This market will resolve to 'Ekaterina Alexandrova' if Ekaterina Alexandrova advances against Camila Osorio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $24.1K$11.4K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3.9K
6h$8.3K
24h$8.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current22.5¢
VWAP 24h46.5¢▼ below by 24.0pp
VWAP 7d46.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.6K
65¢
$2.6K
60¢
$18
55¢
$576
50¢
$0
45¢
$6.5K
40¢
$223
35¢
$4.7K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$11
20¢
← now
$1.3K
15¢
$36
10¢
$565
5¢
$16
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity