National Bank Open: Clara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova

● quote 114 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $46.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $251.5KEvent: National Bank Open: Clara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova
2.4¢
YES
97.6¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection51Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$10.1K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 119 min agoofficial metadata 114 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$6.4K·3 wallets·$6.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYClara Tauson (YES)$4.4K@ 64¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.1K
6h
+$5.1K
tracked
$10.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$6.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 114 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 119 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 114 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Clara Tauson and Nikola Bartunkova in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 6:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Clara Tauson' if Clara Tauson advances against Nikola Bartunkova. This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Clara Tauson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $47.7K$76.1K · 13s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.1K
6h+$5.1K
24h+$5.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.4¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▼ below by 45.7pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1
65¢
$0
60¢
$6.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$651
45¢
$540
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$10
25¢
$0
20¢
$214
15¢
$6
10¢
$22
5¢
$2.2K
0¢
← now
$53

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity