Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs

● quote 33 min ago
SportsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $145.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $213.2KEvent: Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
68.5¢
YES
31.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets40Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:113 trades$18.4K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 37 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.5K·2 wallets·$2.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYakult Brothers (YES)$5.5K@ 34¢·0x2146…d41b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$18.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 67% · priority 53

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 33 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 37 minutes old.
  • Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-04 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Semifinal 2 match between Yakult Brothers and Rune Eaters in the Games of the Future Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 4 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yakult Brothers" if Yakult Brothers win the match against Rune Eaters. This market will resolve to "Rune Eaters" if Rune Eaters win the match against Yakult Brothers. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $14.1K gross
0x3741…517e2 linked markets · $418 gross
0x2e3c…08ba3 linked markets · $317 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $38$364 · 1s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.2K
6h+$2.0K
24h+$2.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h37.5¢▲ above by 31.0pp
VWAP 7d37.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$323
50¢
$291
45¢
$7
40¢
$13
35¢
$1.7K
30¢
$526
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.