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National Bank Open: James Duckworth vs Alex de Minaur

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $410.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $332.1KEvent: National Bank Open: James Duckworth vs Alex de Minaur
7.4¢
YES
92.6¢
NO
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$61.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 31s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.5K·3 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur (NO)$49.8K@ 89¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.5K
6h
−$51.3K
tracked
$61.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$1.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 68

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between James Duckworth and Alex de Minaur in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against James Duckworth. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 89.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4.5K
6h−$51.3K
24h−$51.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.4¢
VWAP 24h10.8¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d10.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$56.4K
5¢
← now
$4.6K
0¢
$11

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAlex de Minaur (NO)$49.8K@ 89.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampAlex de Minaur$49.8K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.