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National Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $317.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $568.8KEvent: National Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann
35.7¢
YES
64.3¢
NO
2.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:215 trades$45.2K trackedsource coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.6K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$20.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlavio Cobolli (YES)$10.4K@ 56¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$9.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.0K
6h
−$10.5K
tracked
$45.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 77% · priority 48

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Yannick Hanfmann in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 7:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Yannick Hanfmann. This market will resolve to 'Yannick Hanfmann' if Yannick Hanfmann advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $555 → $30.3K · 10s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$9.0K
6h−$10.5K
24h−$61

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current35.7¢
VWAP 24h38.1¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d38.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$531
60¢
$258
55¢
$10.5K
50¢
$36
45¢
$9.1K
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
← now
$6.9K
30¢
$6.0K
25¢
$19
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.4K
5¢
$7.5K
0¢
$21

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFlavio Cobolli (YES)$10.4K@ 56.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 7 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cFlavio Cobolli$10.4K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.