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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $263.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $296.8KEvent: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
17.5¢
YES
82.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:38 trades$29.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 11s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Mets (YES)$28.3K@ 47¢·0xa759…1119

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
+$27.3K
tracked
$29.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 42

Since latest large flow: -30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for August 8 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $355 gross
0x5c96…0a392 linked markets · $105 gross
0xda34…b1de2 linked markets · $4 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY New York Mets@ 48.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $0 → $443 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.1K
6h+$27.3K
24h+$27.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.5¢
VWAP 24h46.9¢▼ below by 29.4pp
VWAP 7d46.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$29.5K
40¢
$309
35¢
$14
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1
15¢
← now
$87
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Mets (YES)$28.3K@ 47.0¢0xa759…1119🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa759…1119New York Mets$28.3K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.