Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants

● quote 38 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $110.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $323.9KEvent: Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
93.5¢
YES
6.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:218 trades$109.6K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 39 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $17.2K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$21.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$16.5K@ 44¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$31.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$31.5K
6h
−$18.4K
tracked
$109.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$17.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 71

Since latest confirmed build: -11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 38 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 42 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 39 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-18 01:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for August 10 at 9:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $66.8K gross
0xdbdd…a5de2 linked markets · $5.4K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $4.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY San Francisco Giants@ 18.0¢43m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY San Francisco Giants@ 90.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $143$4 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$31.5K
6h$18.4K
24h$18.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.5¢
VWAP 24h46.2¢▲ above by 47.3pp
VWAP 7d46.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$6.4K
60¢
$8.2K
55¢
$29.0K
50¢
$6.5K
45¢
$20.2K
40¢
$5.6K
35¢
$2.8K
30¢
$10.6K
25¢
$4.1K
20¢
$5.3K
15¢
$6
10¢
$5.0K
5¢
$2.8K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Francisco Giants (NO)$16.5K@ 44.1¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5268…135dSan Francisco Giants$29.9K
BUY VWAP 65.8¢·8 fills
0x5268…135dHouston Astros$27.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·11 fills
AV23IUaSan Francisco Giants$16.5K
BUY VWAP 44.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.