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Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)

● quote just now
UncategorizedCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $26.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.8KEvent: CA Boca Juniors vs. Recoleta FC - More Markets
92.5¢
YES
7.5¢
NO
11.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution37Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:56 trades$56.6K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$28.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$28.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCA Boca Juniors (YES)$12.0K@ 59¢·theowalcott

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
+$3.7K
tracked
$56.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$28.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
11.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 47

Since latest deadline positioning: +33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 11.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 33.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 22:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for August 11 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CA Boca Juniors" if CA Boca Juniors win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Recoleta FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebol.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
theowalcott2 linked markets · $94.4K gross
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $28.5K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY CA Boca Juniors@ 65.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY CA Boca Juniors@ 63.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $3 → $1 · 37s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.6K
6h+$3.7K
24h+$3.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h60.4¢▲ above by 32.1pp
VWAP 7d60.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2
75¢
$0
70¢
$7
65¢
$0
60¢
$41.0K
55¢
$13.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$4
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCA Boca Juniors (YES)$10.2K@ 60.4¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCA Boca Juniors (YES)$12.0K@ 59.1¢
theowalcott0x7ad7…42aa
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

theowalcottCA Boca Juniors$28.5K
BUY VWAP 60.5¢·3 fills
0x2a69…d2f7Recoleta FC$14.9K
BUY VWAP 38.5¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.