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Warsaw: Katarzyna Kawa vs Justina Mikulskyte

● quote 152 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $309.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $176.8KEvent: Warsaw: Katarzyna Kawa vs Justina Mikulskyte
0.2¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly97Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$37.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 181 min agoofficial metadata 151 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$4.2K·3 wallets·$4.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKatarzyna Kawa (YES)$15.0K@ 60¢·0xdbbb…05a8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$402
6h
+$35.1K
tracked
$37.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$4.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 152 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 181 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 151 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Katarzyna Kawa and Justina Mikulskyte in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katarzyna Kawa' if Katarzyna Kawa advances against Justina Mikulskyte. This market will resolve to 'Justina Mikulskyte' if Justina Mikulskyte advances against Katarzyna Kawa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Katarzyna Kawa4h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Katarzyna Kawa4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Katarzyna Kawa@ 67.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Katarzyna Kawa@ 67.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $36.1K → $252 · 9s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$402
6h+$35.1K
24h+$35.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.2¢
VWAP 24h70.2¢▼ below by 70.0pp
VWAP 7d70.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$22
80¢
$15.0K
75¢
$7
70¢
$552
65¢
$5.3K
60¢
$15.1K
55¢
$224
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$13
10¢
$322
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$488

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKatarzyna Kawa (YES)$15.0K@ 60.0¢0xdbbb…05a8🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYKatarzyna Kawa (YES)$15.0K@ 85.0¢0xdbbb…05a8🐋—about 5 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xdbbb…05a8Katarzyna Kawa$30.0K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.