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Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Viktor Durasovic vs Andrea Guerrieri

● quote 103 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $243.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $95.5KEvent: Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Viktor Durasovic vs Andrea Guerrieri
0.8¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
24h sample:29 trades$16.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 113 min agoofficial metadata 94 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrea Guerrieri (NO)$15.0K@ 60¢·0xdbbb…05a8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$227
6h
−$14.7K
tracked
$16.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 103 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 113 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 94 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Viktor Durasovic and Andrea Guerrieri in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Viktor Durasovic' if Viktor Durasovic advances against Andrea Guerrieri. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Guerrieri' if Andrea Guerrieri advances against Viktor Durasovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Andrea Guerrieri2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Andrea Guerrieri@ 83.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $469 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$227
6h−$14.7K
24h−$14.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h38.6¢▼ below by 37.8pp
VWAP 7d38.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$504
45¢
$9
40¢
$51
35¢
$15.0K
30¢
$129
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$70
5¢
$107
0¢
← now
$432

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAndrea Guerrieri (NO)$15.0K@ 60.3¢0xdbbb…05a8🐋—about 3 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xdbbb…05a8Andrea Guerrieri$15.0K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.