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Istanbul 2: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax

● quote 91 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $196.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.1KEvent: Istanbul 2: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax
0.3¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$2.1K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 110 min agoofficial metadata 90 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$233·3 wallets·$242 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$274
6h
−$274
tracked
$2.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$233 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Executable quote is 91 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 110 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-12 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Ostapenkov and Florent Bax in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Ostapenkov' if Daniil Ostapenkov advances against Florent Bax. This market will resolve to 'Florent Bax' if Florent Bax advances against Daniil Ostapenkov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $61 → $3.6K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$274
6h−$274
24h−$274

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h8.9¢▼ below by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d8.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$240
25¢
$38
20¢
$436
15¢
$1
10¢
$0
5¢
$25
0¢
← now
$1.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity