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Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Damir Dzumhur vs Mathys Erhard

● quote 124 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $463.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $318.3KEvent: Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Damir Dzumhur vs Mathys Erhard
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:60 trades$22.5K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 135 min agoofficial metadata 112 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $820·3 wallets·$828 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMathys Erhard (NO)$19.0K@ 44¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$300
6h
−$19.2K
tracked
$22.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$820 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 124 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 135 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 112 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Damir Dzumhur and Mathys Erhard in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Damir Dzumhur' if Damir Dzumhur advances against Mathys Erhard. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Damir Dzumhur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Mathys Erhard3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Mathys Erhard@ 58.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $52 → $1 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$300
6h−$19.2K
24h−$19.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h51.6¢▼ below by 50.6pp
VWAP 7d51.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$815
55¢
$19.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$140
35¢
$407
30¢
$13
25¢
$930
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.0K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMathys Erhard (NO)$19.0K@ 44.5¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 4 hours ago

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5f65…2036Mathys Erhard$19.0K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.